Bitcoin Price ‘Likely’ Bottomed in $3.7K BitMEX Crash, Says Tone Vays

Bitcoin Price ‘Likely’ Bottomed in $3.7K BitMEX Crash, Says Tone Vays

The low is in for Bitcoin after $3,700 crash, Tone Vays has said as he dispels fears of lower lows

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Bitcoin (BTC) likely reached its low when it hit $3,700 earlier this month, veteran trader Tone Vays has forecast as markets remain up 70%.

In the latest episode of his Trading Bitcoin YouTube series on March 29, Vays repeated his previous claim that, logically, BTC/USD should bottom at 20% of its 2019 highs — $2,800.

Vays on $2.8K: “I don’t think it’s likely anymore”

This could occur before May’s block reward halving and not endanger Bitcoin’s long-term perspective, he said, but a dive after that event could have grave consequences.

After March 12, when BTC/USD bounced off 15-month lows of around $3,700, Vays now thinks that Bitcoin will not return to put in lower levels.

“I don’t think it’s likely anymore,” he summarized.

“Because I think this incident, this event earlier this month was close enough $2,800 that I’m no longer expecting $2,800.”

Bitcoin Price 1-year chart showing dip to 70% of highs

Bitcoin Price 1-year chart showing dip to 70% of highs. Source: Coin360

BitMEX crash limited Bitcoin price losses

Since the bounce, Bitcoin has broadly maintained higher support, with the recovery reaching almost 90% in the subsequent two weeks.

Continuing, Vays suggested that in fact, $2,800 would have appeared during the dive and that it was only the crashing of derivatives giant BitMEX which prevented it.

“If BitMEX did not go down, we probably would have $2,800 and maybe even lower,” he said. 

“It’s very possible that if BitMEX didn’t crash, the selling would have just accelerated, but right now, I’m under the assumption that the low is in.”

At the time, BitMEX itself denied that it played a role in facilitating a wave of sell-offs which only ended when it went offline.


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The low is in for Bitcoin after $3,700 crash, Tone Vays has said as he dispels fears of lower lows

Bitcoin Bottomed in ‘Final Capitulation’ but $5K Dip Likely: Tone Vays

Bitcoin Bottomed in ‘Final Capitulation’ but $5K Dip Likely: Tone Vays

Bitcoin may have bottomed but markets haven’t had “enough pain” yet, Tone Vays argues

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Bitcoin (BTC) likely bottomed when it hit $3,700 this week but will likely dive below $5,000 one more time, says Tone Vays.

In the latest edition of his Trading Bitcoin YouTube series on March 13, the veteran trader described the week of mayhem for Bitcoin which culminated in 60% daily losses as the capitulation he’s been waiting for.

Vays: “All signs point to final capitulation”

Introducing the episode on Twitter, he summarized:

“All Signs Point to this being the final capitulation of the 2 year Bear Market.”

Traditionally conservative about Bitcoin price action, Vays sounded the alarm about potential weakness in BTC/USD in January, warning that there was room for losses below the roughly $10,000 levels seen at the time.

Continuing that line of thought, Vays argued that despite traders’ nightmare week, Friday’s rebound for Bitcoin would not be the final bearish chapter.

“As crazy as it is for me to say, I don’t think there’s been enough pain; I don’t think there’s been enough frustration,” he claimed. 

Bitcoin 1-day price chart

Bitcoin 1-day price chart. Source: Coin360

BTC 50% likely to revisit $5,000

Accordingly, Vays set the chances of a fresh dive below $5,000 at 50%, given press time levels of $5,700:

“Do I still think that we are going to fall below $5,000 one more time? The answer is: I actually do.”

Conversely, the chances that BTC/USD had seen its floor this week were much higher — around 90%. Vays would only “panic” if markets hit $1,000, he added.

On the future, the message was simple:

“The final capitulation has happened, the bear market is over, but the road back up will be harder than people realize.”

As Cointelegraph reported, the shock of Bitcoin’s sell-off caught the majority of traders and analysts by surprise. One voice, however, saw it coming — Andreas Antonopoulos argued in January that a huge crash in Bitcoin would be the initial result of global concerns about a recession.

Those concerns remain on traditional markets, as government financial stimulus packages to counter coronavirus panic fail to impress.


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Bitcoin may have bottomed but markets haven’t had “enough pain” yet, Tone Vays argues

Price Analysis 28/10: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, EOS, BNB, BSV, TRX, XLM

Price Analysis 28/10: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, EOS, BNB, BSV, TRX, XLM

Select cryptocurrencies might have bottomed out, while others might remain stuck in a range. It’s now time to be selective

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The seesaw price action over the past week has lightened up the crypto space once again. While the aggressive bulls view the sharp upside move as a bottoming signal, the bears consider the rise as a bear market rally that should be sold into. However, as traders, our goal should be to identify the trend and trade with it.

Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading volume on Bakkt has surged over the past three days. This suggests that the recent market activity has generated interest among institutional traders who expect a sharp directional move. 

Cryptocurrency market daily performance. Source: Coin360

If the price remains strong and the volumes remain elevated for a few days, it will indicate accumulation by the investors. Such a move could result in a new uptrend. Conversely, if the cryptocurrencies quickly give back the recent gains and the volumes remain high, it will be a sign that market participants used the sharp rally to sell. Let’s analyze the charts of the major cryptocurrencies and try to find the trend in each.  

BTC/USD

Bitcoin rallied from an intraday low of $7,380.67 on Oct. 25 to an intraday high of $10,360.89 on Oct. 26. That was a massive gain of about 40% within a two-day period. Usually, after such a sharp move, the markets enter a period of consolidation to digest the gains. How should the traders approach it now? 

The rally in the BTC/USD pair is facing stiff resistance at the downtrend line. This shows that the bears are still active at higher levels. However, the pullback is likely to find support in the  $9,080 to $8,777.89 zone. 

The 20-day EMA is sloping up and the RSI is in positive territory, which shows that advantage is with the bulls. Another positive signal is that the moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover. Therefore, traders should view the dips to the support zone as a buying opportunity. 

However, we do not expect an uptrend to start instantly. We anticipate a few days of consolidation before the bulls assert their supremacy once again. A new uptrend will be signaled on a break above the downtrend line. 

Our bullish view will be negated if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA. If this support breaks down, the pair might retest the recent lows of $7,297.21.

ETH/USD

Ether (ETH) broke above the downtrend line and spurted to the overhead resistance at $196.483 on Oct. 26 but could not scale it. This shows that bears are mounting a stiff resistance at $196.483. 

However, on the downside, the bulls are purchasing the dips to the previous resistance turned support at the downtrend line. 

The ETH/USD pair closed (UTC time) above the 50-day SMA on Oct. 27, which triggered our buy recommendation given in the previous analysis. If the price stays above the 20-day EMA, we anticipate another attempt by the bulls to scale $196.583. If successful, a rally to $235.70 will be on the cards. Hence, traders can retain the stop loss on their long positions at $150.

Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the price back below the moving averages and the downtrend line. In such a case, a drop to $161.056 is possible.

XRP/USD

Though the bulls have managed to keep XRP above $0.29227 for the past three days, they have not been able to propel it towards the next overhead resistance at $0.34229. This shows a lack of demand at higher levels.

However, if the price does not slip below $0.29227, we expect another attempt by the bulls to carry the price to $0.34229 where the traders can book partial profits. The climbing 20-day EMA and the RSI in positive territory suggests that bulls have the upper hand. Therefore, long positions can be held with a stop at $0.24. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the price below both moving averages.

BCH/USD

The pullback in Bitcoin Cash (BCH) turned around from the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern on Oct.25. We were anticipating this and suggested to buy on dips closer to $242 in our previous analysis, rather than chase the price higher. The dip on Oct. 26 provided that opportunity to initiate long positions.

We now anticipate another attempt by the bulls to break out of the neckline. If successful, a rally to $360 will be on the cards.

Conversely, if the bears defend the neckline once again, the pair might remain range-bound between $241.85 and the neckline for a few days. A fall below $241.85 will break the momentum and the trend will turn negative below $197.84. For now, the stops on the long positions can be retained at $196. We will suggest trailing stops higher to $235 at the earliest available opportunity.

LTC/USD

The upside move on Oct. 26 carried Litecoin (LTC) to $63.3876, which triggered the buy recommendation given in the previous analysis. However, the bulls have not been able to capitalize on the breakout of the downtrend line because the altcoin has again dipped below $62.0764. This shows a lack of buyers at higher levels.

If the bears sink the price below the downtrend line, it will be a bearish sign. Both moving averages are flat and the RSI is close to the midpoint. This suggests a range-bound action for a few days. The trend will turn negative on a break below the recent lows of $47.1851. Therefore, traders can keep a stop loss at $47.

Conversely, if the LTC/USD pair rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again attempt to push it above $62.0764. If successful, a move to $80.2731 is likely.

EOS/USD

Though the bulls managed to propel EOS above the overhead resistance of $3.370 for the past two days, they have not been able to sustain above it. This shows selling at higher levels. As the price did not close (UTC time) above $3.370, our buy recommended in the previous analysis was not triggered. 

Currently, the bulls are again attempting to hold the price above $3.370. If successful, a rally to $4.240 and above it to $4.8719 will be on the cards. Therefore, traders can buy above $3.58 and keep a stop loss of $2.40.

Contrary to our assumption, if the bears sink and sustain the price below $3.370, the EOS/USD pair will remain range-bound for a few days. The trend will turn negative below $2.4001.

BNB/USD

Binance Coin (BNB) broke out and closed (UTC time) above the descending channel on Oct. 27, which triggered our buy suggested in an earlier analysis. Both moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory. This suggests that the bulls are in command.

The BNB/USD pair will now start its journey towards the target objective of $32 and above it to $40. Our positive view will be invalidated if the price turns down and re-enters the channel. Such a move will indicate that the current breakout was a bull trap. The traders can protect their long positions with the stop loss at $14.

BSV/USD

Bitcoin SV (BSV) has formed inside day candlestick pattern for the past two days. This shows that the bulls are taking a break after the recent sharp rally. The altcoin can now pullback to $129.589 and below it to $121.743, which are 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the recent leg of the rally.

If the BSV/USD pair bounces off the above-mentioned support levels, it will attempt to break out of $155.38 and rally towards the next target objective of $188.69. The bullish crossover on the moving averages also suggests that the buyers are in command and dips should be viewed as buying opportunities.

As the pair has a history of vertical rallies and waterfall declines, we will watch the price action at the support and then recommend a long position. The pair will weaken if the pullback slips below the previous resistance turned support at $107.

TRX/USD

Tron (TRX) picked up momentum after breaking out of the downtrend line and scaled above the stiff overhead resistance at $0.018660. The 20-day EMA has started to turn up and the RSI is close to the overbought zone. This indicates that the bulls are in the driver’s seat.

However, the bulls are unable to sustain higher levels, which is seen in the long wick on the daily candle. If the price slips back below $0.018660, the TRX/USD pair can retest the downtrend line. A strong bounce from the 20-day EMA could be a good entry point with the stops placed at $0.0111.

Our bullish view will be invalidated if the pair turns down from the current levels and breaks below the immediate support of $0.0136655.

XLM/USD

Stellar (XLM) has reached the downtrend line where it is likely to face resistance. If the bulls can scale above this, it will pick up momentum and rally to $0.088708. For now, traders can protect their long positions with a stop at $0.051.

Both moving averages are flat and the RSI is just above the midpoint, which shows a balance between buyers and sellers. If the XLM/USD pair turns down from current levels, it could dip to $0.056 once again.

A break below this support will be the first signal that the bulls are losing their grip. Below $0.056, the decline can extend to $0.051014. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.


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Select cryptocurrencies might have bottomed out, while others might remain stuck in a range. It’s now time to be selective

Price Analysis 15/07: BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, EOS, BNB, BSV, TRX, XLM

Price Analysis 15/07: BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, EOS, BNB, BSV, TRX, XLM

Has the market bottomed out or will the correction extend after a relief rally? Let’s look at the charts

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The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.

The sharp recovery from the lows led by Bitcoin was largely based on the pretext that institutional players had finally started to take greater interest in the asset class. The sharp uptick in Bitcoin futures volumes and increased demand for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares was thought to be indicative of this. 

However, Binance’s chief executive Changpeng Zhao, in an interview with Bloomberg, said that there has been an equal growth in both institutional and retail trading. The retail traders still account for about 60% of trading volume at Binance, which shows that institutional trading growth “has not increased that tremendously in 2019 yet.“

Strong opposition to Facebook’s Libra project and negative tweets by United States President Donald Trump gave reasons for bulls to book profits. Though some major altcoins have corrected close to their yearly lows, Bitcoin is still holding well above it. Hence, we are viewing the current fall as a buying opportunity. Should traders buy now or wait for lower levels? Let’s analyze the charts.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC) broke below the symmetrical triangle on July 14, which is a bearish sign. The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is just below 50, which suggests a balance between buyers and sellers. 

BTC/USD

Currently, the BTC/USD pair is attempting to bounce off the 50-day SMA. The bulls will face stiff resistance at 20-day EMA but if they succeed in pushing the price above it, a rally to the resistance line of the triangle is probable.

However, if the price reverses direction from the 20-day EMA and plummets below the 50-day SMA, it can drop to $8,900 and if that level also breaks down, the next support is way lower at $7451.63. As the pair has been strong and is still quoting above its 50-day SMA, we remain bullish on it. However, we will wait for the price to show signs of a turnaround before recommending a long position in it.

ETH/USD

The bulls could not push Ether (ETH) above 50-day SMA on July 12. The price turned down sharply and broke below the next support of $224.086. Currently, the digital currency is attempting to bounce off the uptrend line. 

ETH/USD

The moving averages are on the verge of a bearish crossover, which shows that bears are back in the game. A breakdown of the uptrend line will be a negative sign that can result in a deeper correction to $160.

Conversely, if bulls succeed in sustaining the price above $224.086, it will indicate demand at lower levels. Any rally will face stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA. We will wait for the price to trade above $224.086 for a few days before suggesting a long position in it.

XRP/USD

Ripple (XRP) has been among the worst-performing major cryptocurrencies. It did not participate in the recovery and has fallen sharply when the sentiment turned negative. The next supports on the downside are at $0.27795 and below it at the yearly low of $0.24508. 

XRP/USD

Both the moving averages have turned down and the RSI is close to oversold territory. This suggests that the bears are in command. A breakdown to new yearly lows will be a huge negative for the cryptocurrency.

However, the XRP/USD pair has not closed (UTC time frame) below $0.27795 since mid-December last year. Hence, we anticipate buying close to the support. Any attempt to recover will face stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA. We will wait for buyers interest to return in the pair before recommending a trade in it.

LTC/USD

Litecoin (LTC) has broken down of the ascending channel. It is currently bouncing off the next support of $83.65. The 20-day EMA is sloping down and the RSI is in oversold territory, which suggests bears are in the driver’s seat. If the digital currency breaks down of $83.65, it can drop to $66.

LTC/USD

Conversely, if the LTC/USD pair bounces off $83.650 and re-enters the channel, it will be a positive sign. Any recovery will face selling at the 20-day EMA. We will wait for the price to sustain inside the channel before suggesting a trade in it.

BCH/USD

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is in a downtrend. It is trading inside a descending channel. The 20-day EMA is sloping down and the RSI is close to oversold territory, which suggests the bears are in command. 

BCH/USD

The bulls are currently attempting to keep the BCH/USD pair inside the channel. If successful, the price can move up to the resistance line of the channel. A breakout of the channel will be the first sign of a trend change. However, if the price breaks down of the channel, the next support is at $227.70. If this support also cracks, the correction can reach $166.98. 

EOS/USD

EOS plunged below the first support of $4.4930 on July 14 and has bounced off the support at $3.8723. Both the moving averages have turned down and the RSI has dipped into the oversold zone, which shows that sellers have the advantage. 

EOS/USD

If $3.8723 fails to provide support, the next stop might be $3. On the other hand, if the EOS/USD pair bounces off $3.8723, it can move up to 20-day EMA, which is likely to act as a stiff resistance. If the next pullback to $3.8723 holds, we might suggest a trade in it. Until then, we remain neutral on the cryptocurrency. 

BNB/USD

The pullback in Binance Coin (BNB) reversed direction from the 20-day EMA and broke below the critical support of $28.7168. Currently, bulls are attempting to hold the uptrend line. Both the moving averages have completed a bearish crossover for the first time in 2019. This signals a likely change in trend. 

BNB/USD

If the BNB/USD pair breaks down of the uptrend line and the descending channel, it will turn negative and can drop to the next support at $18.30. Conversely, if bulls defend the uptrend line, it will try to move up to the resistance line of the descending channel. A breakout of the moving averages will indicate strength. Though it has been one of the outperformers, we will wait for it to resume its up-move before proposing a trade in it.

BSV/USD

Bitcoin SV (BSV) broke below the descending channel and the critical support of $134.360 on July 14. When the price easily breaks through important support levels, it shows that sellers are in a hurry to get out and buyers are not willing to step in. This is a bearish sign. 

BSV/USD

Both moving averages have completed a bearish crossover and the RSI has dipped into oversold territory. This shows that bears are in command. 

There is a minor psychological support at $100 and below that at $93.680, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally. If both these supports give way, the BSV/USD pair can plummet to $50.030, a full 100% retracement of the rally. Any attempt to recover will face resistance at the 20-day EMA, which is sloping down. 

TRX/USD

Tron (TRX) plunged below the trendline of the ascending channel on July 14. This is a bearish sign because this is the first instance when price has broken down of the trendline since the end of November last year. The 20-day EMA is sloping down and the RSI has dropped close to the oversold zone. This suggests bears are in command. 

TRX/USD

The next support is at $0.022 and if that breaks, the fall can extend to $0.017. However, before that, we expect a retest of the breakdown level. If the bulls can push the price back inside the channel, the current breakdown will be considered as a bear trap. Nevertheless, if the price fails to stay inside the channel and turns down, it will confirm a downtrend. We will get a clear picture within the next few days. Until then, we suggest traders remain on the sidelines.

XLM/USD

Stellar (XLM) dipped below $0.085 but found support closer to $0.080. Hence, it might remain range-bound between $0.08 and $0.145. Both the moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is close to the oversold zone. This shows that bears have the upper hand. 

XLM/USD

If the XLM/USD pair plunges below $0.080, it can retest the lows at $0.072545. A breakdown to new yearly lows will be very negative. However, with the $0.080–$0.085 support zone holding, bulls will try to keep the pair inside the range. The first resistance on the upside is at the 20-day EMA. A breakout of it will be a sign that the bulls are back in the game. Therefore, we suggest traders wait for the price to bounce off the support and rise above 20-day EMA before initiating a long position.

Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.


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Has the market bottomed out or will the correction extend after a relief rally? Let’s look at the charts